…some kind of way out of here….

here are my oscar predictions with a bit of commentary. this is gonna be a long one, so i put it behind this cut. clicky clicky to read more…

My predictions are in bold.
EDIT: I read today that voting is being done this year preferentially instead of on a weighted basis, meaning that everyone gets an individual say rather than some people getting more of a say than others. So a lot of these races could end up funny. Therefore, I’ve changed some things up and added some more stuff.

Performance by an actor in a leading role

* Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart” (Fox Searchlight)
* George Clooney in “Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios)
* Colin Firth in “A Single Man” (The Weinstein Company)
* Morgan Freeman in “Invictus” (Warner Bros.)
* Jeremy Renner in “The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment)

I would LOVE for Coin Firth to win this for his outstanding freaking performance in A Single Man, but with all the buzz around Bridges and awards going to him, I would say it’s almost a sure thing that he’ll win.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

* Matt Damon in “Invictus” (Warner Bros.)
* Woody Harrelson in “The Messenger” (Oscilloscope Laboratories)
* Christopher Plummer in “The Last Station” (Sony Pictures Classics)
* Stanley Tucci in “The Lovely Bones” (DreamWorks in association with Film4, Distributed by Paramount)
* Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company)

I don’t think there will be any surprises here.

Performance by an actress in a leading role

* Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side” (Warner Bros.)
* Helen Mirren in “The Last Station” (Sony Pictures Classics)
* Carey Mulligan in “An Education” (Sony Pictures Classics)
* Gabourey Sidibe in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate)
* Meryl Streep in “Julie & Julia” (Sony Pictures Releasing)

I would say it’s between Sandra Bullock and Meryl Streep for this one, and Bullock will win it unfortunately. Who knows, Streep could pull it off. I wish Carey Mulligan would so we could see a Doctor Who alum getting some American credit.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

* Penélope Cruz in “Nine” (The Weinstein Company)
* Vera Farmiga in “Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios)
* Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Crazy Heart” (Fox Searchlight)
* Anna Kendrick in “Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios)
* Mo’Nique in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate)

I don’t think there’s going to be any surprises here either, she’s been winning everything. And she should. Gyllenhaal was somewhat of a surprise nominee, so she could come out of nowhere and snatch it up, but I doubt it.

Best animated feature film of the year

*
“Coraline” (Focus Features) Henry Selick
*
“Fantastic Mr. Fox” (20th Century Fox) Wes Anderson
*
“The Princess and the Frog” (Walt Disney) John Musker and Ron Clements
*
“The Secret of Kells” (GKIDS) Tomm Moore
*
“Up” (Walt Disney) Pete Docter

I think because Up is nominated for best picture, it would seem obvious it would surely win this category, but maybe the voters will go with Fantastic Mr Fox SINCE Up is nominated in the big category? Maybe..Also, the Secret of Kells totally came out of nowhere (probably due to the preferential voting), so maybe that will get favored?

Achievement in art direction

*
“Avatar” (20th Century Fox) Art Direction: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg
Set Decoration: Kim Sinclair
*
“The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus” (Sony Pictures Classics) Art Direction: Dave Warren and Anastasia Masaro
Set Decoration: Caroline Smith
*
“Nine” (The Weinstein Company) Art Direction: John Myhre
Set Decoration: Gordon Sim
*
“Sherlock Holmes” (Warner Bros.) Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood
Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
*
“The Young Victoria” (Apparition) Art Direction: Patrice Vermette
Set Decoration: Maggie Gray

This is a total guess. Avatar kind of mixes things up with a lot of these since its all CG, so you could argue that it’s even more art directed than the others because it’s totally made up.

Achievement in cinematography

*
“Avatar” (20th Century Fox) Mauro Fiore
*
“Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince” (Warner Bros.) Bruno Delbonnel
*
“The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment) Barry Ackroyd
*
“Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company) Robert Richardson
*
“The White Ribbon” (Sony Pictures Classics) Christian Berger

I don’t think people will be able to take the leap for Avatar to get this award, and from everything I’ve read, Hurt Locker was excellent in this. Single Man needed a nomination here. And for art direction and costume design..But Avatar could get it. But I’ve read Hurt Locker did an amazing job capturing the essence of war. I DONT KNOW! I’m gonna go with that.

Achievement in costume design

*
“Bright Star” (Apparition) Janet Patterson
*
“Coco before Chanel” (Sony Pictures Classics) Catherine Leterrier
*
“The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus” (Sony Pictures Classics) Monique Prudhomme
*
“Nine” (The Weinstein Company) Colleen Atwood
*
“The Young Victoria” (Apparition) Sandy Powell

Another guess. Heavy period pieces tend to do well here don’t they?

Achievement in directing

*
“Avatar” (20th Century Fox) James Cameron
*
“The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment) Kathryn Bigelow
*
“Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company) Quentin Tarantino
*
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate) Lee Daniels
*
“Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios) Jason Reitman

I’m positive Bigelow will get this. It’s almost certain. Anyone else winning would be a huge upset in my opinion.

Best documentary feature

*
“Burma VJ” (Oscilloscope Laboratories)
A Magic Hour Films Production Anders Østergaard and Lise Lense-Møller
*
“The Cove” (Roadside Attractions)
An Oceanic Preservation Society Production Nominees to be determined
*
“Food, Inc.” (Magnolia Pictures)
A Robert Kenner Films Production Robert Kenner and Elise Pearlstein
*
“The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers”
A Kovno Communications Production Judith Ehrlich and Rick Goldsmith
*
“Which Way Home”
A Mr. Mudd Production Rebecca Cammisa

I’ve heard great things about several of these, mostly The Cove.

Best documentary short subject

*
“China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province”
A Downtown Community Television Center Production Jon Alpert and Matthew O’Neill
*
“The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner”
A Just Media Production Daniel Junge and Henry Ansbacher
*
“The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant”
A Community Media Production Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert
*
“Music by Prudence”
An iThemba Production Roger Ross Williams and Elinor Burkett
*
“Rabbit à la Berlin” (Deckert Distribution)
An MS Films Production Bartek Konopka and Anna Wydra

Also heard great things about many of these…so..

Achievement in film editing

*
“Avatar” (20th Century Fox) Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua and James Cameron
*
“District 9″ (Sony Pictures Releasing) Julian Clarke
*
“The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment) Bob Murawski and Chris Innis
*
“Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company) Sally Menke
*
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate) Joe Klotz

This might change after I see Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds, but I’m going to go with Avatar on this one because I’ve seen a lot of articles about editing this film. I’ve also read Precious could possibly snatch this one up from nowhere. Hm..as an editor, my professional opinion is that I have no idea. My favorite editing was a Single Man which I figured wouldn’t get nominated.

Best foreign language film of the year

*
“Ajami”(Kino International)
An Inosan Production Israel
*
“El Secreto de Sus Ojos” (Sony Pictures Classics)
A Haddock Films Production Argentina
*
“The Milk of Sorrow”
A Wanda Visión/Oberon Cinematogràfica/Vela Production Peru
*
“Un Prophète” (Sony Pictures Classics)
A Why Not/Page 114/Chic Films Production France
*
“The White Ribbon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
An X Filme Creative Pool/Wega Film/Les Films du Losange/Lucky Red Production Germany

The only one also nominated in a regular category, seems certain.

Achievement in makeup

*
“Il Divo” (MPI Media Group through Music Box) Aldo Signoretti and Vittorio Sodano
*
“Star Trek” (Paramount and Spyglass Entertainment) Barney Burman, Mindy Hall and Joel Harlow
*
“The Young Victoria” (Apparition) Jon Henry Gordon and Jenny Shircore

District 9 absurdly missing from this.

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

*
“Avatar” (20th Century Fox) James Horner
*
“Fantastic Mr. Fox” (20th Century Fox) Alexandre Desplat
*
“The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment) Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders
*
“Sherlock Holmes” (Warner Bros.) Hans Zimmer
*
“Up” (Walt Disney) Michael Giacchino

The best by far, also deserves an oscar for LOST even though it’s a tv show. Lost deserves an oscar. I don’t care.

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)

*
“Almost There” from “The Princess and the Frog” (Walt Disney) Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
*
“Down in New Orleans” from “The Princess and the Frog” (Walt Disney) Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
*
“Loin de Paname” from “Paris 36″ (Sony Pictures Classics) Music by Reinhardt Wagner
Lyric by Frank Thomas
*
“Take It All” from “Nine” (The Weinstein Company) Music and Lyric by Maury Yeston
*
“The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)” from “Crazy Heart” (Fox Searchlight) Music and Lyric by Ryan Bingham and T Bone Burnett

Randy Newman could win…ew.

Best motion picture of the year

*
“Avatar” (20th Century Fox)
A Lightstorm Entertainment Production James Cameron and Jon Landau, Producers
*
“The Blind Side” (Warner Bros.)
An Alcon Entertainment Production Nominees to be determined
*
“District 9″ (Sony Pictures Releasing)
A Block/Hanson Production Peter Jackson and Carolynne Cunningham, Producers
*
“An Education” (Sony Pictures Classics)
A Finola Dwyer/Wildgaze Films Production Finola Dwyer and Amanda Posey, Producers
*
“The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment)
A Voltage Pictures Production Nominees to be determined
*
“Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company)
A Weinstein Company/Universal Pictures/A Band Apart/Zehnte Babelsberg Production Lawrence Bender, Producer
*
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate)
A Lee Daniels Entertainment/Smokewood Entertainment Production Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness and Gary Magness, Producers
*
“A Serious Man” (Focus Features)
A Working Title Films Production Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, Producers
*
“Up” (Walt Disney)
A Pixar Production Jonas Rivera, Producer
*
“Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios)
A Montecito Picture Company Production Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman and Jason Reitman, Producers

All signs point to a Hurt Locker win. I don’t think Avatar will win, and it shouldn’t.

Best animated short film

*
“French Roast”
A Pumpkin Factory/Bibo Films Production Fabrice O. Joubert
*
“Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty” (Brown Bag Films)
A Brown Bag Films Production Nicky Phelan and Darragh O’Connell
*
“The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)”
A Kandor Graphics and Green Moon Production Javier Recio Gracia
*
“Logorama” (Autour de Minuit)
An Autour de Minuit Production Nicolas Schmerkin
*
“A Matter of Loaf and Death” (Aardman Animations)
An Aardman Animations Production Nick Park

Best live action short film

*
“The Door” (Network Ireland Television)
An Octagon Films Production Juanita Wilson and James Flynn
*
“Instead of Abracadabra” (The Swedish Film Institute)
A Directörn & Fabrikörn Production Patrik Eklund and Mathias Fjellström
*
“Kavi”
A Gregg Helvey Production Gregg Helvey
*
“Miracle Fish” (Premium Films)
A Druid Films Production Luke Doolan and Drew Bailey
*
“The New Tenants”
A Park Pictures and M & M Production Joachim Back and Tivi Magnusson

Achievement in sound editing

*
“Avatar” (20th Century Fox) Christopher Boyes and Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
*
“The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment) Paul N.J. Ottosson
*
“Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company) Wylie Stateman
*
“Star Trek” (Paramount and Spyglass Entertainment) Mark Stoeckinger and Alan Rankin
*
“Up” (Walt Disney) Michael Silvers and Tom Myers

It seems like maybe this category favors the sounds in fantastical settings sometimes because it’s really hard to come up with that stuff. It could easily by Hurt Locker though.

Achievement in sound mixing

*
“Avatar” (20th Century Fox) Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson and Tony Johnson
*
“The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment) Paul N.J. Ottosson and Ray Beckett
*
“Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company) Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti and Mark Ulano
*
“Star Trek” (Paramount and Spyglass Entertainment) Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson and Peter J. Devlin
*
“Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen” (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro, Distributed by Paramount) Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers and Geoffrey Patterson

Achievement in visual effects

*
“Avatar” (20th Century Fox) Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham and Andrew R. Jones
*
“District 9″ (Sony Pictures Releasing) Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros and Matt Aitken
*
“Star Trek” (Paramount and Spyglass Entertainment) Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh and Burt Dalton

If Avatar didn’t win for vfx, I would lawl.

Adapted screenplay

*
“District 9” (Sony Pictures Releasing) Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
*
“An Education” (Sony Pictures Classics) Screenplay by Nick Hornby
*
“In the Loop” (IFC Films) Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
*
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” (Lionsgate) Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher
*
“Up in the Air” (Paramount in association with Cold Spring Pictures and DW Studios) Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner

Original screenplay

*
“The Hurt Locker” (Summit Entertainment) Written by Mark Boal
*
“Inglourious Basterds” (The Weinstein Company) Written by Quentin Tarantino
*
“The Messenger” (Oscilloscope Laboratories) Written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
*
“A Serious Man” (Focus Features) Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
*
“Up” (Walt Disney) Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter
Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy

I could see Inglourious Basterds winning this, or a Serious Man for a Coen Brothers nod, though I heard that wasn’t the best film they ever did or anything.

PS I reserve the right to make changes to this as I see more of the films this month.

Filed under: Uncategorized on February 2nd, 2010